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Looking Back at 2008 …

… not quite enough slides for everything, but you’ll get the idea. Thanks for a wonderful 2008 and we’ll see you tomorrow in 2009!

Waiting for Year’s End on Statistics

Normally I’d be posting absorption rate statistics but with the new year just two days away, I’m going to hold off until then. Admittedly, the numbers will skewer with the expiration of a couple thousand listings as 2008 closes, but the year-end/year-beginning numbers will be of greater benefit going forward. For those who can’t wait that long, as of this moment in time the Phoenix real estate market has an absorption rate of 10.1 months – 38,316 active single family detcahed homes against sales of 3,770 over the preceding 30 days. [tags]Phoenix real estate[/tags]

Coming Up Next: Beagles Confess, “We Lied When We Barked Begging for Breakfast. We Already Had Eaten”

Here’s the cliff notes version of the story: David Lereah, one-time chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, told Money Magazine that he was spinning the home data that he reported during his tenure. If you look at my actual forecasts, the numbers were right inline with most forecasts. The difference was that I put a positive spin on it It was easy to do during boom times, harder when times weren’t good. I never thought the whole national real estate market would burst. Admittedly without checking, I’ve got some doubts about the first setence. As for the rest, […]

How Far Down the Rabbit Hole Can Phoenix Real Estate Go?

Over the past three months, the Phoenix real estate market has accelerated from slowing down to a steep fall down the rabbit hole. The over-arching question is how much deeper into Wonderland can the market fall. And for this, I’m afraid there doesn’t seem to be an answer. Logic is on holiday. Those who argued – and rightly so – that it was illogical for real estate values to rise by multiple percentage points ever month back in 2005 would almost certainly have to argue it’s equally illogical for values in some areas to be dropping by percentage points over […]

Saying Goodbye to an Old Friend

He’s been by my side since the very beginning, though he doesn’t look much like he did when we started four-plus years ago. More and more though, as 2009 approaches, he’s showing his age to degrees I can’t possibly ignore. No, not Tobey. Though he’s getting grayer faster than me. I mean my original real estate website, Dalton’s Arizona Homes. This may sound odd these days, but when I started selling real estate back in 2004 the necessity of a website still was up for debate. My goal was to have a website to generate business, not just to point […]

Looking at Phoenix Bank Owned Homes? Get Serious

Today’s question … What are the chances that a bank owned home listed for $40,000 in more or less decent condition (taking into account its age and almost certainly writing off the appliances) actually will sell for that $40,000 or less? Slim and none, and slim just jumped on Phoenix’s new Light Rail (which opens today, for those in the area.) Second question, of course, is why? Pure market mechanics. Though it’s possible, more often than not you’re not going to be the only person making an offer on one of these homes. The more offers the bank has in […]

The New Wave of Real Estate “Professional” in Phoenix

Much is made in the online real estate world about the nearly non-existent barriers to entry that real estate agents face. This isn’t specific to the Phoenix real estate market but since that’s where I am, I’ll localize the issue. Back in 2005, any idiot could sell a home. Put the listing in the MLS and/or put a sign in the yard, then wait for the calls and contracts to come falling like manna from heaven minutes later. But those days are behind us, you say. I’ve said the same, all the while implying that the slow down in the […]

Phoenix Real Estate Inventory Update – December 24

When all is said and done, Real Estate 2008 might best be remembered as the year that logic forgot. Because every time you turn around, something happens that makes next to little sense. We’ll be taking a walking tour of life down the rabbit hole in the near future, most likely next week, but for now let’s look at the absorption rate numbers. Everyone knows that sales slow precipitously at the end of the year. Add in the dire news from some quarters that openings (accepted contracts) were down in October and the logical assumption is closed sales likewise would […]

A Christmas Tale for Sellers

Since there’s a Christmas present involved in this tale and the person for whom it’s intended might take a look to see what her husband’s writing, I’ll have to make some of this intentionally vague. Yesterday afternoon I was shopping for a T-shirt emblazoned with the logo of a certain franchise whose arena is utterly bereft of championship banners, unless you count the banners of the other teams who share the same arena. My first trip was to Target, where I surprised to find there were three Arizona Cardinals shirts and nothing of the franchise I needed. This didn’t appear […]

Does Your Mother, um, Agent Know That You’re Out?

Last night sometime just after 10 p.m. local time, ABBA Radio’s second run on Sirius came to an end, giving way not to Hanukkah Radio (beginning at 2 p.m. today) but rather an endless stream of promotions for Hanukkah Radio. Which leads to the ancillary question, why start the promos 16 hours in advance when there was more music to play? That question has nothing to do with anything, of course, but you never know if someone from Sirius might be reading this website. In fact, it’s often interesting to look and see who does come to this and my […]