Yesterday, we talked about Phoenix real estate inventory climbing past 8,000 for the first time in a couple of months. As of this morning, it’s nudged even higher and is now over 8,100 single family detached homes across Maricopa County.
As was quickly pointed out over on Google+, it’s still damned hard to get an offer accepted for a buyer – cash or otherwise – below $175,000 or so. There remains a great deal of demand and just not all that much supply.
In reality, buyers won’t really see much difference in their offer success rate until the inventory gets to about 12,000 to 13,000 homes. Even with the slightly higher inventory, this remains a sellers market.
Having said that …
If I were a seller, I’d be thinking very hard about how much longer I want to ride the current wave. At this particular moment, there seems to be a little more limited upside than potential downside (though I don’t see values falling again, not unless there’s either a significant glut of inventory or all the buyers head to the hills.) After what has been a six-month appreciation rocket, at best the appreciation likely will cool to more typical, historic levels – 3 to 5 percent annually.
And if you don’t have equity and are considering a short sale, the time to get on the market is now – don’t wait until buyers have other options besides short sales from which to choose because short sales remain the properties of last resort given processing times.
Right now, this mostly is based on a feeling … the same sense you get at a blackjack table when the shoe begins to cool a little bit and you find yourself treading water rather than raking in the chips.
Inventory remains very, very low. But it looks like the bottomless drop in Phoenix inventory levels found a bottom. Finally.