Calling the Bottom, Inventory Wise

No one who has attempted to purchase a home over the last couple of months needs to be told that inventory has been declining steadily since the spring.

As of this morning, there were just over 13,600 single-family detached homes for sale across all of Maricopa County according to the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service. (If you’re wondering how thin that really is, consider Maricopa County has 3.8 million residents and nearly 1.6 million housing units according to the Census Bureau.

Summer usually is the high selling season here, which leads me to believe inventory numbers soon will level and begin to rise; how quickly is anyone’s guess, as it seems banks are content to trickle homes on the market and many sellers still maintain they “know what my home is worth” contrary to recent sales all around them.

The magic number I’m predicting is 12,750 … that will be the bottom for inventory and then we’ll see the number gradually rise in the winter. I’m not quite as comfortable with a guess on that side but I’ll say 21,000 just for the fun of it all.

That’s my educated estimate. I greatly welcome yours below.

 

Jonathan Dalton

Jonathan Dalton is a 40-plus-year resident of the Valley and has been helping folks buy and sell homes since 2004. He can be reached at 602-502-9693 or info at allphoenixrealestate.com.

1 Comment

  • Another Investor 6 years ago

    Active (not AWC) listings of single family homes with at least 1.75 baths within Maricopa County at all price points totaled just under 11,300 yesterday.  That includes short sales and the REO’s that should be AWC but the listing agent is waiting for signatures.  I don’t recall inventory levels this low since 2005-2006.

    I think we are near the inventory bottom, but we will have to see how many of the slightly overpriced listings and listings that need a lot of work buyers will be willing to accept.  We could go under 10,000 if the market is willing.  In my opinion, we are already well past the price bottoms in a lot of submarkets.

    When will we see the price increases in the statistics?  I think the median price will move up slowly, but the median square footage will drop more rapidly.  Buyers will accept less house in their preferred location to stay within budget. 

Comments are closed.

Real Time Web Analytics

Send this to a friend