ALL PHOENIX REAL ESTATE

Inventory ticked down from last week’s report and sales ticked up by just under 200, bringing the months supply of inventory – the absorption rate – in the Phoenix real estate market to 3.45 months.

While bank owned homes continue to drive the market – there is a 1.3 months supply of REO inventory – traditional, non distressed sales also are showing signs of a sellers’ market at 4.69 months of inventory. This comes with a fairly considerable caveat: the price has to be competitive for buyers to look.

As always, all the particulars from the various cities and towns in Maricopa County is below. Also as always, all data is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Today’s advice before we get to the stats: take with a grain of salt anyone who feels the need to tell you “these are the facts” over and over and over again in effort to prove their point. There’s a reason for the expression “the facts speak for themselves.”

What does this have to do with Phoenix real estate? Quite a bit. You may be hearing that the only reason sales in the Phoenix real estate market started to rise a year ago was because of the Homebuyer Tax credit and that sales will fall off the cliff when it expires.

It’s possible, though it doesn’t match what I’ve seen. In any event, the above is an opinion and not a fact.

We wrote here what all the experts were saying, that mortgage rates were going to rise by the end of March because of the government no longer buying mortgage backed securities. Seemed like a fact. Didn’t happen.

(The Fed did raise the Fed Funds rate a week or so ago, but that’s different.)

Some real estate agents will tell you that we’ve reached bottom and that it’s a great time to buy. Again, it’s opinion and not fact.

Here’s my opinion based on as much fact as I can see … the Phoenix market is bottoming and has been doing so for a year. It’s not going to be a “V” type of bounce where there’s a quick reversal. There’s an excellent chance prices are going to tumble along current levels for a while, either a hair above or below.

As this shakeout happens, the effects are going to differ from one area to the next.

Think of one of those shakers, the big pieces of equipment designed to shake out the small particles and leave the larger ones untouched to move on; the different types of material gets treated differently.

Our local real estate market is about the same. Some areas have leveled or are leveling, some still are searching for their bottoms.

Anyone who tells you with certainty of the “facts” regarding the market are hoping you aren’t going to ask questions.

With that, this week’s update is below. All data is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Time keeps on ticking, ticking, ticking into the future … if you’re looking to take advantage of the homebuyer tax credit, NOW is the time to contact an agent (presumably me) as there are 22 shopping days left before it’s gone.

Inventory in the Phoenix real estate market remains relatively thin – 22,898 single family detached homes are for sale across the Valley. There were 6,374 closed sales over the past 30 days, meaning we have 3.59 months of homes available on the market at the current sales pace.

Bank owned homes continue to move swiftly – there were 2,523 closed sales over the past 30 days against 3,368 active sales for 1.33 months of inventory.

For the first time in a while, at least that I recall, non-bank owned and non-short sale homes are moving more briskly than the short sales. We’re at 5.03 months of inventory for non-distressed sales and 5.16 months for short sales, assuming everything recorded as closed really closed.

Recognition of the importance of short sales is key going forward. Lenders need to accept the reality that they stand to gain more accepting a short sale rather than forcing a foreclosure and need to work with listing agents. And listing agents need to surrender the stupid agent tricks such as the one I saw on an electronic flyer yesterday promoting a short-sale listing as $30,000 under the comps.

Unless the bank already has approved the price, the home isn’t really selling for $30,000 under comps. It’s a shell game, a bait and switch, and more and more buyers are starting to realize it.

As always, all the particulars from across the Valley are below. And also as always, all data is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

It was a year ago at this time that I looked at the numbers and thought I was looking at an April Fools joke – inventory was down significantly, sales were spiking above the 5,500 mark … what I sensed but couldn’t pin down until subsequent week’s data were available was that this was the beginning of a sea change in the Phoenix market, if not in price then in activity.

And so we fast forward to today and we see there were 6,484 closed sales of single family detached homes in the Phoenix real estate market in the month of March … significantly higher than at the same period a year ago.

Of those sales, 2,496 were of bank owned homes and 1,358 were short sales; the remaining 2,630 were traditional, non-distressed sales.

Inventory has fallen from two weeks ago and remains lower than the year-before period, with 22,814 homes on the market … down a few hundred from a couple of weeks back. Of those 22,000, just over half are traditional sellers and there are 3,313 bank owneds and 6,621 short sales.

Does this spike owe itself to the expiration of the home buyer tax credit at the end of this month? Possibly, in part, though I still haven’t personally seen a lot of activity along that front. It also could be seasonal as this is the beginning of the time when buyers start preparing for the following school year.

In any event, it’s an interesting time when even the traditional real estate market (as opposed to REO and short sale) has less than five months of inventory currently available.

As always, the details from the various cities and towns in the Phoenix real estate market are below. And also as always, all data is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

A day late but hardly a dollar short …

Inventory remained flat across the Phoenix real estate market this past week, with 23,388 single-family detaached homes currently for sale in Maricopa County. Sales over the past 30 days were 5,562 for an overall absorption rate of 4.2 months, down just over a week from last week’s report.

Bank owned inventory is at 1.66 months (3,529 active listings and 2,131 sales), short sales are at 5.34 months (5,704 listings and 1,256 sales) and non-distressed sales are at 6.05 months (13,155 listings and 2,175 sales.)

Anthem remains the strongest market in the Valley (technically that honor goes to Desert Hills, though there’s almost no sample size there) with only 1.91 months of inventory currently available.

El Mirage and Avondale also are under 2.5 months of homes for sale at the current sales pace.

As always, the details for the various cities and towns in the Phoenix real estate market are below. And also as always, all data is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is demed reliable but not guaranteed.

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[tags]Phoenix real estate[/tags]