Delving Deeper into the Phoenix Real Estate Numbers

Just in case you wondering …

As of this writing Monday evening, there have been 10,475 single-family detached homes sold for less than $100,000 since the start of the year in the Phoenix real estate market.

The average final list price is $65,739; the average final sales price is $63,464 – 96.5 percent of that final list price.

Want the median numbers? Median final list price was $69,000. Medial final sales price was $65,000 – 94.2 percent of list price.

How about the raw numbers? At the risk of blowing up my Microsoft Excel, I downloaded all 10,475 sales last evening into a spreadsheet. (If you want the 30MB+ and growing file, you may want to consider psychiatric help.)

Of those 10,475 sales …

  • Seven sold for less than 50 percent of the list price
  • 47 sold for between 50 and 60 percent of list price
  • 193 sold for between 60 and 70 percent of list price
  • 308 sold for between 70 and 80 percent of list price
  • 9,820 sold for 80 percent or more of list price
  • 2,945 sold for more than list price

So what’s the morale of this tale?

If you’re looking to purchase homes listed under $100,000, either as an investor or as an owner occupant, you’re not going to be purchasing them for 50 cents on the dollar as some would have you believe, not unless you think you can be one of the 7 out of 10,000 and change who did it.

You’re not even going to be purchasing them for 70 cents on the dollar, not unless you hit the 1-in-42 chance home sale lottery. You have a far, far greater chance of having to pay above list price than paying 30 percent less.

You either can believe the numbers or that guy whose uncle’s girlfriend’s sister knows someone who knows a lot about real estate. Or the Arizona Republic, for that matter.

Jonathan Dalton

Jonathan Dalton is a 40-plus-year resident of the Valley and has been helping folks buy and sell homes since 2004. He can be reached at 602-502-9693 or info at allphoenixrealestate.com.

2 Comments

  • Dean Ouellette 6 years ago

    Those numbers seem strange to me. Are you considering list the original list or last marketed list

  • Jonathan Dalton 6 years ago

    Last marketed list. Original list, to my mind, is irrelevant. Let’s say you have an owner who’s smoking peyote and lists a home that really is worth $100K at $200K. Home sells for $95K. Was this home really purchased at a 53 percent premium just because the owner was high as kite? Not the way I see it …

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