Greetings from the Local Naysayer

There’s an old stock investing theory, the gist of which goes that the smart money takes a look at popular opinion and does the opposite. Because at the end of the day, the mentality of the masses usually is wrong.

Individually, we’re intelligent. Collectively, we’re kinda stupid. Have doubts? Check out the people wrestling with each other for free T-shirts at a hockey or basketball game.

But I digress …

Loaded with such a contrarian view, let’s take a look at four common conceptions about the Phoenix real estate market as we move into the second month of 2010:

1) The Phoenix market is rife with shadow inventory, homes that have not yet been put on the market and are silently killing values. I’ll let Russell Shaw’s recent post on Agent Genius speak to this one.

2) There’s a second wave of foreclosures looming that will drown the market. If I’m not mistaken, speculation about this second wave started just under a year ago. It’s still not here. A very long time to wait in the sand wearing water wings, all in all.

3) Bank of America sucks when it comes to short sales, loan modifications and just about whatever else you can think of housing related. No, wait. This one’s true.

4) Short sales are excellent deals. Sure, if you have a couple months minimum to wait and if you’re prepared to pay around market price because the bank’s not going to give too steep of a discount no matter what you hear at the cocktail party.

[tags]Phoenix real estate[/tags]

Jonathan Dalton

Jonathan Dalton is a 40-plus-year resident of the Valley and has been helping folks buy and sell homes since 2004. He can be reached at 602-502-9693 or info at