Twice today I had the same conversation with prospective buyers … that the Phoenix market, and some neighborhoods in particular, were in the process of bottoming out and that even if they’re not quite there, time’s running out.
Right? Wrong? It’s hard to say, especially on a macro-level. It would fit that there is only so long you can have thinner supply and higher demand than in the past and not see prices move accordingly.
Here’s what I can tell you about the Phoenix real estate from where I’m sitting:
1) The expiration of the homebuyer tax credit is a non-issue. This could be because my niche has become Canadian buyers and retirement communities, but I also work with first-time buyers and this never has been a dominant reason for them to purchase. Permanence remains the issue.
2) The Canadian dollar’s strength is keeping interest from north of the border strong … even if I was slightly premature in admitting defeat in my stance that we’re not going to see par. The loony has backed off since I said it.
3) Premium properties are leading the way – golf course, lakefront, view – though not at the higher prices. This also could be a function of who I’m working with as a primary client base.
4) Belief can lead to reality. Just as declining prices can be self-fulfilling, so too can be the expectation things will improve
5) Lenders, at least some, are moving more quickly to get homes on the market. Down the block from me, a home was listed some six months after it had been foreclosed. This morning, my office listed a bank owned home that was just turned over at the trustee sale about two and a half weeks back.
Got some thoughts? I’m always interested to hear them.