Market Realities Versus Perceptions

avatarthumbnail.jpgA couple of days ago I referenced the Cromford Report, which now is available to members of the Arizona Regional MLS. I’m of two minds on the whole thing – I’d just as soon not have another tool attempting to level the playing field by providing data most agents can’t figure out on their own. Then again, there are so few of us online doing this anyway, and the data’s so easy to work with, then maybe the playing field isn’t getting all that level.

That’s really neither here not there, except for the fact that the following chart comes directly from the Cromford Report (data deemed reliable but not guaranteed, actual mileage may vary, etc.):

scottsdale.jpg

For those of you who’s eyes are almost as good as mine these days, you can see the larger version of the chart through this link.

Scottsdale happens to be one of the slower markets in the Valley … prices tend to be a bit higher than elsewhere in the Valley so the low-priced foreclosures that have caused the waters to begin churning in many cities in the Phoenix market aren’t available there.

Having said that, take a look at the Average Sales Price as a Percentage of List. As of today, it’s sitting at 92.27%. This is an average, of course, and exceptions to exist. But what this points out is that except for the most desperate of cases where the seller wants or needs to sell and doesn’t care what they get as long as they sell … you’re looking at a discount of less than 10% of the list price on average.

Looking at the market these days is much like watching an NBA Playoff game … you see what your heart wants you to see. If you’re a Lakers fan, you want to see Damon Jones strung up for intentionally tripping Kobe Bryant two nights after flinging him off the court with a two-hand shove. A Nuggets fan may see nothing in either play.

So it goes with the Phoenix real estate market. Some see a buyers’ market but don’t really understand what that means. (In short, it means the buyers have more leverage than the sellers but it doesn’t necessarily mean sellers will hand you their home for 50 cents on the dollar just because you asked the question.)

Some see a seller’s market, looking at the overall data and not taking into account the various subcategories that make up the full picture.

Some will look at that 92% figure and say it’s just an average and that offers 65% of list price are more than reasonable in a declining market (though not declining as fast as it has been for the past few quarters.) Others will look at it and see a window of opportunity that is slowing beginning to close.

Truth be told, none of the people above will be wrong. This market is all things at once to all people, for better or for worse. Some buyers are finding deals at higher price points while buyers in the sub-$125,000 range are dealing with bidding wars and multiple offers (not to mention listing agents “too busy” to update their listings status.)

In any event, it’s only one man’s opinion backed by the numbers now available to any of the agents who can log on to their computers (which means we eliminated about 1/4 of the agents right off the top.)

I jest, of course. Ha. Ha ha. Hee hee.

Or not.

[tags]Phoenix real estate/tags]

About Jonathan

Jonathan Dalton is a 30-plus-year resident of the Valley and has been helping folks buy and sell homes since 2004. He can be reached at 602-502-9693 or info at allphoenixrealestate.com.

  • Love it – “Truth be told, none of the people above will be wrong.” So true. Great perspective on this wacky world, we are working in. We do have to stay on our toes to keep up with how rapidly the market is changing.