To be honest I’m not exactly sure where NAR is coming up with the estimates; no source is given and as best I can tell there’s no single source available.
In the Arizona Regional MLS covering the Phoenix area, there are just over 2,100 sales listed as pending where the contract was accepted before April 30. So the idea there are another 3,000 and change across the rest of the state to get to NAR’s 5,440 is plausible.
What wouldn’t be accounted for in this case is the 7,000-odd ARMLS listings under contract before April 30 listed as Active with Contingencies – a contract has been accepted by the seller but there’s some kind of contingency attached, such as the seller giving the agent written instructions to continue marketing or another sale needing to take place to fund the purchase.
Another question is what percentage of these sales would have qualified for one of the home buyer tax credits, either the $8,000 first-time investor credit or the $6,500 move-up buyer credit; there are many, many investors and foreign buyers snapping up homes right now and neither group would qualify (and for that matter, neither did anyone else who purchased in the last couple of years.)
What I’m saying is numbers without context always give me pause … this is one of those cases.
One argument I’m reading about the extension is the notion 60 days isn’t enough time to close a loan. For lack of a better word, bollocks. Though I’m currently watching one escrow extend toward the two-month mark thanks to a last-minute complication, most lenders are able to complete loans in considerably closer to 30 to 45 days. Some can do it in as few as two weeks. So don’t take as universal the notion that loans can’t be completed in two months as it’s simply not true.
Will NAR’s last-minute push cause the extension finally to be passed before Wednesday’s expiration? The clock’s ticking …