From time to time you’ll see a real estate blogger mention that the phones have started to ring along with the phrase “the market might be picking up.” It’s even happened here at least once, maybe twice.
Of course, the sales figures never seem to follow the ringing phones. This doesn’t diminish the importance of a ringing phone in a fairly quiet real estate market. But it does provide some evidence for the notion of pent-up buyer demand.
Buyers do exist here in the Phoenix real estate market, and in other markets as well. You see them emerge from their burrow from time to time like Punxsutawney Phil checking for his shadow then retreating back into the comfort of their own existence without so much as another word. A few venture out and actually make a purchase while others stand on the sideline and debate the action.
What is everyone waiting for? The bottom of the market, of course. Except no one is going to know we’ve hit the bottom until we’ve bounced back off. There may be some inklings that things are a-changing but until there’s a firm rebound in sales and a firm drop in the inventory, the true bottom can’t be identified.
Watching the Phoenix real estate market almost is like watching a junior high school dance at this point. The music’s playing. A toe may be tapping here and there and someone may even be bobbing their head. Many of the attendees – not all, but many – want to dance but the dance floor’s empty. No one wants to lead the way for fear of learning later they made the wrong decision (which in junior high means punch will be flying your way along with a ton of laughter.)
Buyers collectively are waiting for everyone else to do something so they feel better about the decision their making. It’s not a question of if they’ll venture onto the dance flooor – the population here in Phoenix isn’t declining – it’s a matter of when.
[tags]Phoenix real estate[/tags]