When I first started tracking absorption rate figures two years ago this month, my interest was less about the weekly statistics than the trends that could be seen over time. Trends tend to carry more weight than solitary statistics, at least in my mind.
For example … tell me a batter is hitting .372 for a given week and I’ll assume he’s having a good week. Tell me that he hit .372 for a given season and .394 in another I’ll tell you that he had two amazing seasons. Now tell me he has a career batting average of .338 and you’ll have my attention.
(Bonus points if anyone knows the person behind the last two examples.)
Last week I received this comment on my weekly absorption rate post:
1. Calculating “Actives Homes” on the 1st of the month is not accurate, since most of them expire on the previous day and dont get relisted immediately.
As you almost certainly know if you’ve read the blog, I don’t run the numbers on the first of the month; I run them weekly, usually on Tuesdays. In addition, while it’s noteworthy that many listings expire on the first of the month, in the long run it has virtually no real impact on the numbers. There’s no way to compensate for a large number of expireds because not all expireds return to the market.
Case in point … as of this morning, July 8, a full week after the first of the month, inventory was down by a handful of homes. There was no mad rush to return all of the expired listings back to the Arizona Regional MLS. And whatever was put back into the system essentially was absorbed to the point of a near neutral week.
Sales were down slightly, leading to a slightly higher absorption rate at 8.66 months of inventory. In the bank owned arena (and I don’t mean Chase Field), listings and sales both were up by a handful and we’re still at 3.5 months of inventory there.
One side note … some have asked me about pendings but I intentionally don’t track these as they’re neither active listings not completed sales. And there’s no hard and fast way of telling whether these pendings will close or go back active.
Back to the main subject and on to the numbers. As always, all data is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
[tags]Phoenix real estate, absorption rate[/tags]