This morning I was working with the inventory figures for the Phoenix real estate market over the last 17 months or so – since the time I started tracking and posting absorption rate figures here and on my previous blog.
There was a significant drop in inventory at the first of the year, which is to be expected. Real estate agents like nice clean breaks like month’s end or year’s end for listing durations. Inventory has started to come back at a pace that seemed much quicker than a year ago after a similar dropoff.
Though it doesn’t appear that it really is. The biggest difference I’m seeing between the end of 2006 and the end of 2007 was there was a gradual decrease in listings over the final three months of 2006 ahead of the final sharp drop at the end of the year. In 2007, the decrease didn’t really start until closer to the end of November.
One quick note about the chart … inventory figures literally can change from minute to minute. What I have done is pull the data from the Arizona Regional MLS every Tuesday, searching only for single-family detached homes in Maricopa County. The data is pulled sometimes early, sometimes late. This can result in some minor fluctuations but it shouldn’t affect the overall trend, which is the point.
In any event … I’ve told you what I see. What do you see?