If I had thought ahead to the fact today’s April Fools Day, I would have made sure to make the time yesterday to post market statistics.
If I had know what I had been seeing when I ran the numbers, I absolutely would have posted yesterday. In fact, I debated posting these tomorrow lest someone think they’re reading an April Fool’s Day post.
They’re not. You’re not. These are the numbers from the Arizona Regional MLS.
When I checked yesterday, there were 32,382 active single family detached homes for sale in Maricopa County. As of a few minutes ago, that number has fallen to 31,946 mostly because of the end-of-month expiration that always occurs.
As of yesterday, there had been 5,247 closed sales in the Phoenix real estate market the past 30 days. That would give us an absorption rate of 6.17 months – if nothing else came to the market, at the current sales rate all the homes in the MLS would be sold in 6.17 months. (As a reminder, between five and six months is considered a balanced market where neither buyers no sellers have too much leverage.)
As of a few minutes ago, that sales figure had jumped to 5,865 closed sales for the month of March with the jump coming, not surprisingly, on the final day of the month when many closings take place.
The result? An absorption rate of 5.45 months for the Phoenix real estate market’s single family detached homes inventory. Been tracking these numbers for nearly 3 years now and that’s the lowest inventory figure we’ve had over that entire period.
Bank owneds are moving even more quickly. Yesterday, the absorption rate was 2.1 months. Today, with the slip in inventory with the expireds (down to 7,677 from 7,907) and the jump in sales with the last day of the month included (3,622 to 4,000) the bank owned absorption rate is at 1.9 months.
Less than 60 days.
So what does all this mean? In short, it means the Phoenix real estate market of today isn’t the real estate market of last year or even three months ago. That pent-up buyer demand many of us have discussed is manifesting itself. The efforts to stem foreclosures, albeit only temporarily with moratoriums, is helping reduce inventory.
My hunch is prices aren’t improving in spite of the better supply/demand ratio but that’s a factor of the lengths banks are willing to go to sell their inventory. And things still are sluggish for traditional sellers, at least unless they’re willing to compete against the banks on price.
Honestly, even I feel like there should be an April Fool’s Day coming. But it’s not.
As always, on the below table are the details from the various cities and towns in the Phoenix real estate market. And also as always, all data is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
[tags]Phoenix real estate[/tags]