Today’s advice before we get to the stats: take with a grain of salt anyone who feels the need to tell you “these are the facts” over and over and over again in effort to prove their point. There’s a reason for the expression “the facts speak for themselves.”
What does this have to do with Phoenix real estate? Quite a bit. You may be hearing that the only reason sales in the Phoenix real estate market started to rise a year ago was because of the Homebuyer Tax credit and that sales will fall off the cliff when it expires.
It’s possible, though it doesn’t match what I’ve seen. In any event, the above is an opinion and not a fact.
We wrote here what all the experts were saying, that mortgage rates were going to rise by the end of March because of the government no longer buying mortgage backed securities. Seemed like a fact. Didn’t happen.
(The Fed did raise the Fed Funds rate a week or so ago, but that’s different.)
Some real estate agents will tell you that we’ve reached bottom and that it’s a great time to buy. Again, it’s opinion and not fact.
Here’s my opinion based on as much fact as I can see … the Phoenix market is bottoming and has been doing so for a year. It’s not going to be a “V” type of bounce where there’s a quick reversal. There’s an excellent chance prices are going to tumble along current levels for a while, either a hair above or below.
As this shakeout happens, the effects are going to differ from one area to the next.
Think of one of those shakers, the big pieces of equipment designed to shake out the small particles and leave the larger ones untouched to move on; the different types of material gets treated differently.
Our local real estate market is about the same. Some areas have leveled or are leveling, some still are searching for their bottoms.
Anyone who tells you with certainty of the “facts” regarding the market are hoping you aren’t going to ask questions.
With that, this week’s update is below. All data is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
|Sun City West||99||425||4.29||-0.10|