Phoenix Real Estate Inventory Update – April 16

Today’s advice before we get to the stats: take with a grain of salt anyone who feels the need to tell you “these are the facts” over and over and over again in effort to prove their point. There’s a reason for the expression “the facts speak for themselves.”

What does this have to do with Phoenix real estate? Quite a bit. You may be hearing that the only reason sales in the Phoenix real estate market started to rise a year ago was because of the Homebuyer Tax credit and that sales will fall off the cliff when it expires.

It’s possible, though it doesn’t match what I’ve seen. In any event, the above is an opinion and not a fact.

We wrote here what all the experts were saying, that mortgage rates were going to rise by the end of March because of the government no longer buying mortgage backed securities. Seemed like a fact. Didn’t happen.

(The Fed did raise the Fed Funds rate a week or so ago, but that’s different.)

Some real estate agents will tell you that we’ve reached bottom and that it’s a great time to buy. Again, it’s opinion and not fact.

Here’s my opinion based on as much fact as I can see … the Phoenix market is bottoming and has been doing so for a year. It’s not going to be a “V” type of bounce where there’s a quick reversal. There’s an excellent chance prices are going to tumble along current levels for a while, either a hair above or below.

As this shakeout happens, the effects are going to differ from one area to the next.

Think of one of those shakers, the big pieces of equipment designed to shake out the small particles and leave the larger ones untouched to move on; the different types of material gets treated differently.

Our local real estate market is about the same. Some areas have leveled or are leveling, some still are searching for their bottoms.

Anyone who tells you with certainty of the “facts” regarding the market are hoping you aren’t going to ask questions.

With that, this week’s update is below. All data is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

CITY SOLD 3/16-4/16 ACTIVE Inventory
in months
Change from
last week
Anthem 64 139 2.17 0.02
Avondale 181 356 1.97 -0.09
Buckeye 237 606 2.56 0.02
Carefree 8 114 14.25 0.81
Cave Creek 47 348 7.40 0.84
Chandler 354 1,295 3.66 -0.13
Desert Hills 2 12 6.00 1.67
El Mirage 93 177 1.90 -0.23
Fountain Hills 63 322 5.11 -0.21
Gilbert 436 1,410 3.23 0.13
Glendale 406 1,118 2.75 -0.17
Goodyear 187 563 3.01 -0.11
Laveen 161 377 2.34 0.16
Litchfield Park 75 175 2.33 -0.14
Maricopa 222 688 3.10 -0.01
Mesa 663 2,130 3.21 -0.20
Paradise Valley 30 456 15.20 -2.64
Peoria 269 1,045 3.88 0.19
Phoenix 1,691 5,593 3.31 0.03
Queen Creek 236 575 2.44 -0.01
Scottsdale 418 2,913 6.97 -0.01
Sun City 110 419 3.81 -0.03
Sun City West 99 425 4.29 -0.10
Surprise 390 1,059 2.72 -0.14
Tempe 85 476 5.60 -0.09
Tolleson 79 206 2.61 0.05
Waddell 28 86 3.07 -0.15
Total 6,390 22,802 3.57 -0.02
REO 2,478 3,289 1.33 -0.01
Short sales 1,274 6,539 5.13 -0.03
Tradtional 2,638 12,974 4.92 -0.11
About Jonathan

Jonathan Dalton is a 30-plus-year resident of the Valley and has been helping folks buy and sell homes since 2004. He can be reached at 602-502-9693 or info at allphoenixrealestate.com.

  • a secret fan

    You might want to check your headings. I think your actives and solds are reversed. The good news is the MSI is right.

  • Jonathan Dalton

    Yup, I flipped it. Thanks for the heads up!