Let’s look a couple of weeks into the future and answer the question that seems to be on a lot of readers’ minds these days … what’s going to happen in January?
First off, inventory’s going to fall off the map on January 1 if history’s any guide as a couple thousand listings expire. Much of that will return in the weeks that follow the new year, though they won’t return as quickly as they disappear. So expect to see the absorption rate tumble for a few weeks after the first.
Second, and this is my own speculation, the much-anticipated spike in foreclosed homes may not materialize. What do I base this on? Check out this week’s inventory total for bank owned homes in Phoenix and look at past weeks. Despite several lenders putting the foreclosure process on hold, the number of REO properties on the market continues to climb.
In short, the so-called hiatus has been anything but. Why? Mainly because of the assorted restrictions the lenders had on who could benefit from the break. If the home was not owner occupied – either the owner had moved or it was an investment property – it was likely that the foreclosure proceedings would continue.
This isn’t to say bank owned inventory won’t continue to rise. If I wasn’t expecting 2009 to be the year of the bank owned home in Phoenix, I wouldn’t have devoted an entire web site simply to Phoenix bank owned homes. But I don’t see the sudden, severe spike taking place. Just my own two cents.
Quick recap for the week – inventory across the Phoenix real estate market stands at 38,707 homes, just a hair lower than a week ago. Sales over the preceding 30 days were at 3,766, which is just a hair higher than the 30 days ending last week.
Overall, the absorption rate here in the Phoenix real estate market stands at 10.35 months, which remains considerably lower than a year ago even though we’re in a much tougher economic environment.
Speaking of which, thoughts on the impact of today’s Fed decision – particularly what it means for Canadian and other foreign buyers – will follow over the next day or so.
As always, details for the various cities and towns in Maricopa County follows. And also as always, all data is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
[tags]Phoenix real estate, absorption rate[/tags]