Somewhere there’s a joke waiting to be told involving the Hollywood Grind blog or US Magazine and bumpy bottoms, but I don’t have the heart.
Back around the first of April, it was clear that the Phoenix real estate market had taken a turn. Activity spiked, inventory fell. In fact, about the only thing that didn’t happen – and by not happening it defied the law of supply and demand – is sales prices did not improve along with the lessening supply and increased demand.
Fast forward six months and it’s worth examining what “bottom” is being discussed when various pundits explain that the Phoenix market has hit bottom.
From the standpoint of sales volume, the pace through the late spring and summer was closer to what it was back in the insanity of 2005 … that would mean the bottom, in these narrow terms, had passed.
But that’s not what most people want to know about. For the vast majority of folks – even though of us who both sell real estate and own a home – the bottom we want to see is the one which defines an improvement in sales price and home values.
Are we there yet? Maybe, possible, sort of depending on where you are.
In El Mirage, for example, the median price has held roughly steady for seven months now. That would seem to me to be a bottom being formed, though there needs to be an upturn at some point to define it.
But that upturn doesn’t necessarily a bottom make. In a few other communities, we’ve seen an upswing in median prices followed by another drop. In most of these cases, these are parts of the market that weren’t hit as hard by foreclosures early this year but slowly have caught up to the contagion the rest of the market has felt.
Oh, and let’s not forget the legendary second wave of foreclosures that nearly seven months after it was predicted still has not reached the market as banks get a bit smarter about the flow of homes coming to the market.
What will happen next is anybody’s guess.
And maybe the bottom really lies in the eyes of the beholder.
[tags]Phoenix real estate[/tags]