Sell Your Phoenix Real Estate in Two Weeks

Jonathan Dalton, Phoenix Real Estate AgentImpossible, you say? Absolutely not. But to sell your Phoenix real estate inside of two weeks, there are a few givens that you must accept. They will not come easily and they likely will not come without some mental pain:

1) Just as all of the gains of 2005 were paper gains, all of the declines of 2005 also are paper declines (I won’t say losses because, unless you pulled out the equity from your home, these aren’t true losses.)

2) Accept the idea that prices are not going to rebound in the short term

and, much more importantly, the appreciation of 2005 was a one-time phenomenon unlike to repeat.

3) If you either have little or no equity in your home (i.e., you purchased or refinanced during the boom), selling may not be a possibility.

4) You are able to focus on what gains reasonably can be realized now versus what could have been realized “if only I’d sold back in 2005.”

Jay Thompson crunched some numbers and determined what many of us (including Jay) already knew … historically, Phoenix real estate appreciates at a rate of about five percent per year.

For those who want to sell … who truly want to sell … there is power in those numbers. And if you doubt that power, take a look at some of the recent computations on the Dr. Housing Bubble Blog.

Take your home’s value back in November 2004 before the run began. Compute what your home’s value would be based on 5% annual appreciation. Then take the last sales price (or prices for currently active homes) and find the midpoint between that price and your adjusted home value.

For example: your home was worth $200,000 in 2004. Assuming 5% annual appreciation, your home would be worth roughly $231,000 now. If currently active homes are selling at $270,000, split the difference – $250,000.

Congratulations. You now have your list price.

Think this idea is limited to bubble bloggers? Talk to an investor and see how they view the property. Find out how often they want to know what someone owes on a property before they’ll make an offer.

You may not like this strategy. Your neighbors certainly won’t like it. But if you believe in the concept of a revision to the mean – the idea that market values eventually return to the historical averages – all you are doing with such a strategy is hastening the inevitable return to that average.

Could you be leaving money on the table? Possibly. But you could pull the trigger now or wait another four months while paying mortgage payments – the choice is yours. Think about the stories you’ve heard from friends, the neighbors who were insulted at the offers they received only to accept less months later. This happens. Every day.

In some areas it may be too late. In some areas, where appreciation still occurs (mostly because they didn’t see the same run-up in 2005), it may not be necessary.

Drastic? Absolutely. Crazy? Absolutely not.

This isn’t the only way to sell a property. And this method may not be everyone. But for those who truly need to get out of their property with whatever equity they may have, this is the best possible option. This is the “right” price that will cause a home to sell and sell quickly – even in two weeks.

Want real estate transparency in the face of the current market? You just got it.

[tags]Phoenix real estate, home values, real estate marketing[/tags]

Jonathan Dalton

Jonathan Dalton is a 40-plus-year resident of the Valley and has been helping folks buy and sell homes since 2004. He can be reached at 602-502-9693 or info at allphoenixrealestate.com.

0 Comments

  • Greg Swann 10 years ago

    I don’t talk to the bubbleheads because I really don’t like having them around, but there are two problems with the idea of reversion to the mean.

    The first is the notion that history is destiny, a black swan problem that bites economics in the butt again and again.

    The second is: Where’s the mean? The price boom was an artifact of a massive currency inflation starting after 9/11. At the same time, we’ve gone through a huge burst in human productivity, which has tended to disguise the consequences of that inflation, which we would expect to see in higher prices. Goods that are not cheaper to produce now, compared to 2001, should reflect those higher prices even if the net effect is masked by the Consumer Price Index.

    When the market settles down, we’ll know what it has settled down to. In the mean time, if sellers come in under the recent comp sales, their homes will sell.

  • Jonathan Dalton 10 years ago

    >In the mean time, if sellers come in under the recent comp sales, their homes will sell.

    Usually, depending on the area. But the other question remains how far they ought to come under to get it done.

    The above thoughts are somewhat drastic, I admit, but in some areas drastic is what needed to get something to sell. And I’ve been through the math with enough buyers to see how they’re viewing pricing.

  • Sock Puppet 10 years ago

    Average home prices are currently 6x the average annual family income as opposed to the historical average of 4x the avergae family income.

    We’ll be coming down a fair bit more than this I think.

    -Athol

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    Great explanation. We are still doing ok here in BC, I have bookmarked this post for future

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  • Jonathan Dalton 10 years ago

    Thanks, Raj … glad you found the ideas useful!

  • Chris Butterworth 10 years ago

    I really like this out-of-the box way of looking at it. No one knows exactly where our market is going to be in 18 months, or even in 6 months. But this can be a useful paradigm shift to help sellers grasp A) today’s price is less than what you wanted, but it’s not an actual loss, and B) given a more “normalized” market this is where you might have been today..

    I used this methodology this afternoon while talking with someone who has owned their home for 10+ years and is considering selling. It helped to make the numbers seem more fair/real/true. They were able to get past the bubble and say “let’s list here at X (a good, fair price in today’s market), and as long as we receive Y (good margin of safety that I’m confident we’ll receive) then we did well with this house.”

    Anyway, thanks Jonathon, for a useful tool.

  • Thomas Johnson 10 years ago

    Well done, Jonathan. Real Estate as an asset class tends to track inflation. The divergence of rising real estate prices in the double digits in a low inflation economy presage a very vicious regression to the mean including negative year to year pricing. This regression will be exacerbated over the next 24 months as teaser rate ARMs reset and payments become painful for the homeowners.

    It’s just a multi-billion dollar margin call. When you leverage over 95%, a 5% move against you wipes you out after transaction costs are taken into consideration.

  • John Wake 10 years ago

    Wonderful strategy!

    Actually, 24% of the homes sold in via ARMLS were sold in 30 days or less.

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