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Jonathan Dalton
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Shadow Inventory

Can the Phoenix Real Estate Market Recovery Sustain Itself?

There have been a pair of articles of note of late, spelling doom for the national real estate housing market. The first comes from SeekingAlpha, where the downturn in existing home sales as reported by NAR has the author believing the bull market of the past year-plus is going to stall. I’m hard pressed to disagree, if only because the double-digit appreciating we have seen here in the Phoenix real estate market cannot be sustained. At some point, inventory is going to climb as increasing numbers of home owners either take advantage of the equity recently built or find themselves above […]

Phoenix Real Estate By the Numbers – January 2013

Let’s take a look at the Phoenix real estate market by the numbers in January. And I promise, we’ll keep the lights on through the entire post. As of the moment, there are 11,025 detached homes for sale. As I said this weekend, that’s essentially the same level we’ve been at for the past couple of months. In January, according to the Arizona Regional MLS (add disclaimer of your choice here) … There were 4,247 closed sales, down roughly 10 percent from last January’s 4,682. Understandable, given the thinner inventory. Of those, 584 were sales of bank owned homes/foreclosures/REOs. Last […]

Two Quick Inventory Notes

First, courtesy of AZCentral’s Catherine Reagor (with a hat tip to Dean Ouellette at the Phoenix Real Estate Guy), it appears the so-called shadow inventory took a bit of a hit last week deep in the, um, shadows … Several buyers were interested in the Phoenix houses Fannie Mae was selling. Originally, 341 in the region were to be sold to one buyer, according to the federal government. The sale of the Fannie Mae foreclosure homes became apparent to data guru Tom Ruff of AZBidder on Wednesday night, when he tracked metro Phoenix’s REO inventory — homes taken back by […]

Phoenix Real Estate Inventory Rising Quickly

Remember those halcyon days when there only were 7,200 single family detached homes on the market? That period quickly is becoming a distant memory. As of this morning, there are 8,571 detached homes for sale in Maricopa County – roughly 18 percent more than at the lows of June and roughly 7 percent more than were available just over a month ago. Though this is August and school has started, inventory traditionally doesn’t rise in Phoenix until around Labor Day. With only 2,637 closed sales through the first 13 business days of the month, there is considerable work to be […]

“Phoenix Overshot the Downside”

From Steve Cook of the BiggerPockets real estate investment blog: A new study of some of the hardest hit markets like Phoenix suggests that prices have been so low that they have been offering bargains for buyers because they became detached from economic fundamentals and now prices are rising as inventories reach record lows. “Phoenix provides a good case study of a market which has been in transition over the past year,” said Tom O’Grady, CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services.  “Market drivers here have all turned positive for home prices, with months of remaining inventory (MRI) dropping to the lowest […]

Shadow Inventory: ‘It’s a Bit like the Y2K Problem”

Still waiting for the flood of bank-owned homes to hit the Phoenix real estate market? It may be a long wait. From … Right now, there are about 8,800 homes for sale in the Phoenix area, compared with 50,000 in 2008. Many people believe the low number is because banks are holding foreclosed homes off of the market in an effort to drive up Valley home prices. Professor Michael Orr of the ASU Real Estate Studies Department doesn’t believe that. “I actually keep a file of exactly what houses the banks own and what they’re doing with them,” he […]

Phoenix Real Estate Inventory May Be Stabilizing

A quick check of the Arizona Regional MLS shows just over 7,700 single family detached homes on the market – a total that has held steady, give or take 100 homes, for the past week to 10 days. And that leads to the conclusion that after nine months of falling inventory, we  may finally have hit the bottom of the Phoenix real estate market – at least for inventory levels. Prices indicate the bottom came and went; buyers now need to think in six figures for homes built within the past 10 to 15 years across much of the Valley. […]

How Deep is the Phoenix Market Recovery?

Within the next handful of weeks, we’ll likely know the depth of the Phoenix real estate market’s recovery. Many signs appear to point to the month of June as the time when, if there is shadow inventory to be found, it will hit the market. In the interim, the mere fact the Phoenix real estate market seems to be bucking some national trends is rather encouraging. From Steve Cook at BiggerPockets: According to the National Association of Realtors, distressed sales accounted for 28 percent of April sales (17 percent were foreclosures and 11 percent were short sales), down from 29 […]

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