The Beauty of Hindsight

avatarthumbnail.jpgEarlier this year my wife picked up Season 1 of Mad Men from the local video rental store (can it be called video rental when it’s almost all DVDs?) and we quickly were hooked. Aside from the poignant “man in the mirror” moments, it is interesting to look back at how now-distant events were perceived (or at least how the writers perceived they were perceived.)

Last night’s Season 2 finale was set against the backdrop of the Cuban Missle Crisis. All through the episode the panic in the air was evident; everyone seemed to think the end of the world was nigh. Except it wasn’t. And as we later learned, the great Soviet threat that our parents’ generation feared barely existed.

My 10-year-old is becoming hooked on 80s music. One of her favorites (and mine, now that I think of it) is Nena’s 99 Luftballoons, which is all about the end of the world after a nuclear holocaust. Music from the tail end of the Cold War, less than a decade before the fall of the Berlin Wall and the implosion of the Soviet Union. Seems campy now.

Looking back on the real estate hysteria of 2005 it’s easy to say that everyone should have seen this coming, except few were sounding the warnings then. There were signs of weakness, much as there were signs of weakness in the Soviet Union, but it often was easier to simply go with prevailing wisdom than wonder if the wisdom was right.

My question now is how will we look back on 2009 in a few years’ time. Will this be the year that the economy starts to bounce back ever so slightly? Will the Phoenix real estate market have reached the bottom that it has been trying to establish the last few months?

Is the 92-cent Canadian dollar a mirage, a second once-in-a-lifetime opportunity (much like Phoenix’s double 100-year floods in the late 70s), or is this the level that the CAD is going to find more permanently?

We don’t know the answers to the questions yet. All we can control is how we react to the given situation. And hopefully, in a few years’ time, we won’t be sitting around shaking our heads wondering why we didn’t act now and what we’ll know then.

[tags]Phoenix real estate[/tags]

Jonathan Dalton

Jonathan Dalton is a 40-plus-year resident of the Valley and has been helping folks buy and sell homes since 2004. He can be reached at 602-502-9693 or info at allphoenixrealestate.com.

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