The Illusion of Recovery

Jonathan Dalton, Phoenix Real Estate AgentWe’ve all done it.

Maybe it’s because of job requirements and a boss’ unique perspective that no one ever really gets sick and that the body recover almost immediately from all maladies. Maybe it’s because w, particularly in America, have never mastered the fine art of taking a break and unwinding. (Siesta, my friends, is a cool concept.)

But all of us at one point or another have rushed back at the first signs of recovery in full belief that everything is fine only to learn that the recovery’s still in progress, that there still is more time needed before we’re operating at 100 percent.

Today I tore out of the house less than 24 hours after seemingly getting past a short-term stomach virus. Never mind that I hadn’t eaten or that I’d lost several pounds in just a couple of days time. I woke up, felt fine and off I went.

An hour in, my body reminded me that full recovery had not taken place.

The same can be said of the Phoenix real estate market these days.

Inventory is falling at a time of year when it should be on the rise. The overall absorption rate for the Phoenix market is just under 11 months, which is better than it was but is still extremely high. Bank owned properties are driving the market in seemingly opposite directions – sales are going higher even as prices are falling lower.

There are some signs that we’re nearing the bottom, maybe not in terms of price but at least in terms of the year-long inactivity that has plagues the market.

But we’re not there yet.

Your average homeowner who wants to sell can’t do so unless he or she is willing to price their home along with the foreclosures. The general idea that foreclosed homes all are trashed and shouldn’t count as comps is going by the wayside as there are some that are in good condition from the outset.

And there’s still some anxiety in the marketplace … some anticipation for changes that may or may not occur. I received an e-mail recently from someone who really likes a couple of houses in Scottsdale priced in the $700s … if they’re available in the $500s.

Is there another 25% left to come off the price in one of the most sought-after areas of the Valley? I’d tend to think not but you never know.

Changes already are occurring at some levels. The idea of low-balling a bank owned home is going by the wayside; multiple offers are the current norm if a property’s priced well.

And that ultimately is going to determine the fate of the market and the actual moment when the recovery becomes not a figment of our imaginations or our conditioning but becomes an actual reality.

Bank owned homes sell because of perceived value. When that perceived value is seen to apply to the market as a whole, then the recovery will be here.

As for me, I’m going back to bed.

[tags]Phoenix real estate[/tags]

Jonathan Dalton

Jonathan Dalton is a 40-plus-year resident of the Valley and has been helping folks buy and sell homes since 2004. He can be reached at 602-502-9693 or info at


  • Frank 10 years ago

    I saw several bank owned that were mint clean from the outside but the inside was not fit for a pig. House filppers see $ signs in them but not your average Joe. The reason that many bank owned properties are selling is because many investors are out buying them by the bulk and that is why we are seeing multiple offers on the bank owned houses. Funny thing, due to this change in the market, I am seeing many properties increase the asking price even though they have been on the market for almost a year. People need to wake up, it it is not bank owned or a short sale, no one is going to look at your property, or maybe one or two if you are lucky.