I noticed a question/comment on Trulia Voices yesterday asking why there were so many homes for sale in Arrowhead Ranch and voicing concern that’s a sign there’s something going on.
Yes, there is something going on. Arrowhead Ranch is in Phoenix and we have an oversupply of homes. That about covers it.
There are too many sale signs in the Phoenix real estate market these days. But there are somewhat less than I would have expected at this time of year. I could be proven wrong in two days when I update the absorption rate numbers but inventory’s basically flat right now – right around 39,400 single-family detached homes in Maricopa County. That normally doesn’t happen in the spring.
(And yes, this is springtime in Arizona. We had a blast of cold about 10 days ago, with yet another thunderstorm and hail and 50-degree temperatures. It was near 80 yesterday and was still in the 70s when I left the Calgary-Phoenix hockey game at 11:30 p.m. That may explain why everyone in Calgary was at the game in Glendale.)
This past week one of my clients said everyone he knows says prices will be lower a year from now than they are now. I’m someone he knows and he didn’t ask, which could have led to the unanimous verdict. I don’t necessarily agree but I also don’t know for sure.
If he and everyone he knows is right then there’s no harm in waiting a year. If they’re wrong, by the time they realize that they were wrong prices could have shifted higher. Human nature is such that even a small increase can scare some from buying because they’re too busy kicking themselves at missing the bargain opportunity.
There are bargains to be had if you know where to look. Most if not all involve holding onto the property for a few years but I tend to believe that’s what is supposed to happen with real estate anyway. Real estate never was intended to be a quick-flip profit proposition like a 1999 tech stock. There’s less at stake if people lose confidence in their JDS Uniphase stock than when they lose confidence in their own homes.
[tags]Phoenix real estate[/tags]