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Jonathan Dalton
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What Does Normal Appreciation Look Like?

What Does Normal Appreciation Look Like?

avatarthumbnail.jpg“How much are we going to able to sell this house for someday?”

An accurate answer would involve a crystal ball and or some tea leaves, since there’s no way of knowing the state of the market at the exact moment that you decide to sell. More generally, though, there are certain ranges of appreciation that are commin in a more normal real estate market … you know, the kind of thing we haven’t seen in Phoenix in a half-decade.

The following chart comes courtesy of the Cromford Report and illustrated average annual appreciation based on price per square foot in the city of Phoenix since 2002:


If you look at the purple and red lines clustered in the middle, these are the annual appreciation rates measured through 2002 and 2003. The light blue line is 2004, which starts the year in that same single-digit range before rising sharply at the end. And the green is 2005, which is when the insanity struck (followed by the tumble.)

What you can see from the mishmash in the middle is “normal” appreciation is in the single digit range … could be as little as 1 or 2 percent a year or a bit higher depending on the circumstances. What you also can see is we remain off last year’s prices by a large amount, though the gap is closing slightly.

(The gap should continue to close as inventory remains low and the difference in year over year sales price shrinks. Less inventory has led to at least a leveling of home prices in many areas of the Valley.)

Sales numbers coming later today …

[tags]Phoenix real estate[/tags]

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